Foreword
On February 24, 2006, al]Qaeda terrorists launched an operation against the worldʹs largest oil refinery, the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia. As part of the attack, two or three vehicles were loaded with explosives and attempted to breach the fenced perimeter of the refinery. Saudi security forces were able to prevent the al]Qaeda operatives from penetrating the perimeter, and the attack was largely a failure. Nevertheless, the fact that the worldʹs largest oil refinery was targeted by al]Qaeda during a time of record]high oil prices caused instability in the global energy market, instantly inflating oil prices after the attack by $2 per barrel.
The failed Abqaiq attack must act as a warning to the international community. Saudi Arabia, the worldʹs largest oil producer, faces a continued threat from al]Qaeda and Islamist militants bent on weakening the rule of the Saudi government. Furthermore, as clearly outlined in al]Qaeda leader Osama bin Ladenʹs statements, in addition to statements made by other leaders associated with al]Qaeda, attacking oil facilities in Saudi Arabia are encouraged since such attacks drive up the price of oil and damage the economies in oil importing countries such as the United States.
The attack on Abqaiq will likely be the first of many such attempts. Al]Qaedaʹs hallmark strategy is to learn from the mistakes of its past operations, refining its tactics before launching a similar]style attack. There is little doubt that al]Qaeda terrorists are studying the failures of the Abqaiq attack; furthermore, the media attention that the incident garnered alone encourages future attacks. In early May, for instance, Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al]Naimi warned that al]Qaeda is ʺnot going to stop only at Abqaiq. They will probably try again and again.ʺ
A successful attack on Abqaiq or another major Saudi oil facility will send shockwaves through world energy markets, impacting severely the economies of Western countries. It will also raise al]Qaedaʹs stature among its followers and sympathizers, proving that the organization is still a potent force and one that can cause damage to the worldʹs largest economies. The continued threat of instability in Saudi Arabia and other energy producing states is a future for which the United States must carefully prepare.
Glen E. Howard
President, The Jamestown Foundation .....
